We hope you have an enjoyable Father’s Day Weekend. Markets are on pace to recover from last week’s decline. According to Fisher Investments, more data continues to suggest an economic recovery is under way. Coronavirus cases are climbing, especially in states which eased economic restrictions early. However, it appears economic activity is increasing in spite of a spike in cases – suggesting the federal, state, and local governments will try to manage new case spikes with an open economy instead of reverting to shutdowns. The success of this strategy remains to be seen, although we are optimistic the worst of the economic data is behind us.
Below is this weekend’s recommended reading:
Over our 35+ years in the investment industry, we have seen a number of bear market periods – none of which compare to the speed of the decline in March. What usually takes 6 to 18 months occurred in just a few weeks, and long-term investment discipline was tested. No one knows if we will experience another correction of the magnitude experienced in March, however, we’re happy to report the overwhelming majority of our client base stuck with the portfolio strategy and long-term asset allocation in light of the constant waves of negative health and economic news. Needless to say, we’re proud to work with such an incredible client base.
As Capital Group suggests, “This is different than the 2008 financial crisis — we can see the other side of the valley.” It remains to be seen how deep and wide of a valley we experience. However, Capital Group makes a point that the self-imposed economic shutdown does provide more clarity than the full-blown banking and real estate crisis in 2008. During that period, companies, especially banks, were in much worse financial condition going in to the crisis.
Capital Group believes the recovery will continue, especially in the equity markets. Easy monetary and fiscal policy along with low interest rates have historically been tailwinds for equities.
As we commented on the first article in this weekend’s post, we’re extremely proud to work with a client base who stayed disciplined during a period of extreme stress. Fear and panic should not be contributors to investment decisions. However, it does not mean there are situations in which you should consider reducing your stock exposure. Ben Carlson offers up several situations in which a reduced equity exposure may make sense. A few of the highlights:
When you need to rebalance. This goes both ways. In times of stress, it means buying more equities. In times of prosperity, it means reducing equities to build short-term cash reserves.
When you need to diversify. This can be deduced by detailed planning outside of stressful periods. Expect the world to break about once a decade and diversify the portfolio with that expectation in mind.
When you’ve won the game. We frequently have conversations with clients who have the ability to be as aggressive or as conservative as they desire. Generally speaking, a balanced approach for those who have already won the game is the correct formula.
We hope everyone has a happy and safe weekend. Please give us a call if you have any questions.
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