Jobs, Tariffs, & IPOs

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, retirement plan services to anything we found interesting.  Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!

ECONOMY NEWS

Three Things – All About That Labor Report

• Cullen Roche examines whether or not the labor market is soft, manipulated, and means that rate cuts are back.

Will Data Centers Crash the Economy?

• Noah Smith: This time, let’s think about a financial crisis before it happens.

Downside Surprise in Employment Levels

• Econ Browser: Tales from the Employment Situation release for July – (1) July establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data indicating a slowdown.

Related:

• • Trade Deals, Tariffs, & Housing
  • Housing, AI Capex, & US Exceptionalism
  • Bonds, Tariffs, & Jobless Claims
  • SFO Quarterly Review: Q2 2025

MARKETS NEWS

Why Can’t the Stock Market Grow at 15% Forever?

• Ben Carlson answers a familiar question: if tech firms now have higher profit margins than the old industrial giants, why don’t expected long‑term equity returns average 13–15% per year?

August 2025 Stock Market Outlook

• David Sekera (Morningstar): Where we see investing opportunities valuation – increases are concentrated in only five mega-cap stocks.

‘Independent’ Shouldn’t Mean ‘Beyond Criticism’

• Todd Bliman (Fisher Investments): The upside for investors from President Trump’s seemingly constant criticism of Fed head Jerome Powell.

Related:

• Stokes Family Office Ranked Top RIA Firm by Financial Advisor Magazine For Third Consecutive Year
• SFO Quarterly Review: Q2 2025
• Inflation Surprises and Calls For Rate Cuts
• Energy, Housing, & Expected Returns

CHART OF THE WEEK

“Would we have seen an economic contraction if our tech overlords didn’t go on an insane AI spending spree? Could there have been an even worse downturn from the trade war earlier this year without the massive AI spend? We don’t live in a world with counterfactuals. But this feels like the week when everyone decided to put data behind the idea that AI has more or less been carrying the economy and markets. The tech giants are spending a boatload of money on the AI arms race.” – Ben Carlson

Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years.  As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. We are your local experts for Gulf South wealth management. Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.