Housing, Sentiment, & Mega-IPOs

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, and retirement plan services to anything we found interesting.  Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!

ECONOMY NEWS

Why Isn’t Oil More Expensive?

• Tim McDonnell: With peace talks between Iran and the US in limbo, one of the main questions looming over global energy markets is why the price of oil isn’t much higher than it is.

The Housing Market Recession

• Ben Carlson: The U.S. housing market is experiencing a “housing recession” not because home prices are collapsing, but because high mortgage rates have crushed transaction volume and affordability, pushing home sales down to levels typically seen during major downturns. The biggest pain is being felt by real estate professionals and mortgage lenders.

Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index

• Econbrowser: Using this measure, consumer sentiment is actually fairly high, not much lower than early 2024.

Related:

• EVs, Interest Rates, & Economic Growth
• Bonds, Bubbles, & Beijing
• AI & The Bulls In Charge
• The Stokes Family Office Q1 Review

MARKETS NEWS

5 Things Barry Ritholtz Is Thinking About

• Ritholtz: Profits, all-time highs, the K-shaped economy, consumer sentiment, and the Iran war. It’s not perfect out there. But until we see deeper signs of deterioration and further economic weakening, I remain constructive.

How Will Mega-IPOs Change the Face of the US Stock Market?

• Dan Lefkovitz: The effects of SpaceX and other big private companies going public won’t be sweeping or come all at once.

The Case For Locking In 3% Real Returns

• Bob Elliott: With 30-year TIPS now yielding nearly 3% real, investors can lock in inflation-adjusted returns competitive with traditional portfolios without the risks that come from a large slug to equity risk.

CHART OF THE WEEK

Via Torsten Slok, Apollo Partner/Chief Economist: The surge in new US business formation is being fueled by AI and large language models, which are dramatically reducing the cost and complexity of launching a company (see chart). But scale cuts both ways. As some firms grow and others get disrupted, we will, over time, see a meaningful impact on the US labor market. See More.

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