Bond Yields, Private Credit, and AI Demand

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, and retirement plan services to anything we found interesting.  Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!

ECONOMY NEWS

The Biggest Risk of Rising Bond Yields

• Ben Carlson: It’s not a U.S. debt crisis. It’s prolonged high mortgage rates further freezing an already unaffordable housing market, where high prices and borrowing costs are keeping buyers and sellers stuck.

Returning to Camp Kotok

• Barry Ritholtz revisits Camp Kotok, an annual off-the-record gathering of economists and money managers in Maine where candid debates over Fed policy, interest rates, recession risks, and markets mix with fishing, wine, and plenty of spirited disagreement.

July ISM Indexes: Reasonably Strong but Stagflationary Expansion

• The Bonddad Blog: The economically weighted ISM indexes suggest the U.S. economy remains in expansion and should continue growing in the near term, with employment stabilizing, but stubborn producer-level inflation remains the biggest concern.

Related:

• EVs, Interest Rates, & Economic Growth
• Bonds, Bubbles, & Beijing
• AI & The Bulls In Charge
• The Stokes Family Office Q1 Review

MARKETS NEWS

Is Private Credit’s Smooth Ride Real Or an Accounting Illusion?

• Larry Swedroe: Private credit’s unusually smooth returns may understate its true risk because infrequent, appraisal-based valuations delay recognition of losses and suppress reported volatility, though the asset class, especially higher-quality senior secured loans, can still offer genuine return and diversification benefits.

Yields At Levels Not Seen In a Decade

• Mark Rzepczynski: Since the pandemic, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields have been on a steady march higher. We have seen continued inflation above target, continued budget deficits, the shock of pandemic QE, and no strong policy moves to stop the ascent. We are now seeing rates that will take us back up to pre-GFC levels. Could this be considered normalization of rates?

The Tech People Are Worried

• Josh Brown: They’re not worried about capex overbuild. They’re worried about the coming demand. This is the takeaway from our conversation with Big Technology expert Alex Kantrowitz.

CHART OF THE WEEK

Via FactSet, earnings are doing the heavy lifting. S&P 500 forward P/E has contracted even as 2026 earnings growth estimates surged.

LAGNIAPPE PODCAST

This week on the Lagniappe Podcast, Doug and Greg break down an unusual economic picture: job growth has stalled, interest rates remain elevated, and inflation continues to complicate the Fed’s next move — yet corporate earnings and the stock market remain surprisingly strong.

They discuss why bad news for the labor market can sometimes be good news for stocks, how lower rates could unlock pent-up housing and real estate development, and why oil prices could play an important role in the inflation outlook. Plus, they dig into impressive S&P 500 earnings growth and why AI-driven productivity could give investors plenty to be optimistic about over the long term.

Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years.  As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. We are your local experts for Gulf South wealth management.