AI, Inflation, & Vibes
May 1, 2026
Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, and retirement plan services to anything we found interesting. Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!
Still Looking Like Inflation Will Remain Low
Scott Grannis: My M2 indicators continue to suggest that inflation is likely to remain relatively low. Moreover, whereas the economic outlook had been looking rather modest, there are now welcome signs of an economic pickup on the horizon; this builds on the fact that corporate profits have been quite healthy of late.
Hints of AI-Powered Efficiency Gains
James Pethokoukis: As headlines keep warning of a white-collar job wipeout thanks to artificial intelligence, many economists remain skeptical. This caution is supported by economic history, theory, and real-time economic data. On that final point, new research shows industries most exposed to AI are seeing faster output per worker, not mass layoffs. To the extent AI is showing up in the numbers, it’s a productivity uplift, not a jobs apocalypse.
Kevin Warsh as the Next Fed Chair
Sonu Varghese: This year’s return has been driven almost entirely by rising earnings expectations, with profit margins hitting an all-time high of 15.2%. Against that backdrop, a change at the top of the Fed feels like a longer-term question. While it is, “longer-term” doesn’t mean “unimportant,” and there are a few things worth understanding now.
Related:
JC Parets: Consumer sentiment hit new all-time lows at the same time stocks were hitting new all-time highs. That’s exactly what you want to see if you’re betting on higher stock prices. But one data point isn’t enough. Where else can we look to understand how Americans are thinking and how they are positioned? Because if history is any guide, we probably want to be doing the opposite.
Four Scenarios for the SpaceX IPO
Owen A. Lamont, Ph.D.: The U.S. is currently enduring an epic IPO drought. The SpaceX IPO might be like a torrential rainstorm in this parched landscape. The downpour could bring forth a flowering of life and greenery, or it could bring destructive flash floods. Be ready for anything.
Tomasz Tunguz: Google Cloud grew 63% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Amazon Web Services posted 28%. Microsoft Azure hit 40%. All three are exceptional. Only one hit 63%.
Via Max Marchione: The cost of sequencing a human genome dropped from $100M to less than $100 in about 25 years. That’s a million-fold decrease, which outpaces even Moore’s Law.
We’re about to enter the era of personalized medicine.
Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.
Marveling at American Innovation
Before they head out to Jazz Fest, Doug and Greg analyze why the market continues to shrug off the Iran conflict, relate AI to this generation’s railroad construction, and praise the economic and technological prowess of the United States.
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