Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things Gulf South Wealth Management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, retirement plan services to anything we found interesting. Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!
ECONOMY NEWS
- Economic Growth Quickens, Rising at 2.8% Rate in Second Quarter.
- Second-quarter GDP marks sharp acceleration from the first quarter
- Consumers increased their spending, businesses invested more in equipment and stocked inventories, and inflation cooled.
- The Outlook for Consumer Spending Is Modestly Lower In Recent Weeks.
- If economy slows, a faster slowdown would have negative implications for earnings and increase the probability of a sell-off in stock markets and credit markets.
- Apollo is monitoring incoming data to see if this is a small adjustment or the beginning of a more meaningful slowdown
- The Death of the Dollar (in Perspective).
- The fear of the US dollar’s demise is overstated; all fiat currencies decline in value over the long run, but the USD remains strong.
- The US economy, characterized by high GDP and median income, outperforms inflation. A modest rate of inflation is not detrimental.
- The USD’s status as the dominant reserve currency is slowly declining but remains unmatched.
- Bill Dudley Opinion: I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now.
- Economic Slowdown: There are signs of an economic slowdown, including cooling labor markets and weakening business investments.
- Inflation Under Control: The inflation rate is nearing the Fed’s target of 2%, indicating that the aggressive rate hikes over the past year have been effective.
- Global Context: Other central banks, including the European Central Bank, are also facing similar pressures and might consider rate cuts soon.
- Market Expectations: Financial markets are anticipating rate cuts, with investors predicting that the Fed might reduce rates by the end of the year.
MARKETS NEWS
- What’s the Worst Long-Term Return For U.S. Stocks?
- 1926 to June 2024, S&P 500 averaged an inflation-adjusted return of 7.2% annually.
- Worst 22 Year Period: Ending in 82, real return of 1.4% annually due to high inflation.
- Return Probabilities: Real returns over 22 years have a 59% chance of being at least 6%, but only 45% of hitting 7%.
- How Hurricanes Can Impact the Energy Sector.
- Gulf storms can interrupt offshore production, which can be supportive for oil prices.
- Midstream infrastructure like export facilities, offshore pipelines, and pipelines servicing refineries can see reduced volumes around hurricanes.
- Refineries may shut down or reduce rates during hurricanes, leading to higher gasoline/diesel prices & stronger refining margins for those that continue operating.
- Goldman: US Small Cap Rotation Triggered by Macro, Boosted by Positioning
- Russell 2000 recently recorded largest 2-week rally against Nasdaq 100 since ‘02.
- Investors have become more concerned about the market concentration into big tech and the size of future returns on AI investments.
- Goldman recently shifted neutral into the summer in their asset allocation.
Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years. As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.
