The ‘Timing The Market’ Debate
March 27, 2026
Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, and retirement plan services to anything we found interesting. Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!
Fisher Investments: If gold is a safe haven and inflation hedge, why is it falling hard amid war and inflation fears?
M2 Update: Ok For Now, But the Fed Should Ease
Scott Grannis: wartime uncertainties are very likely to spark an increase in money demand. Without a corresponding increase in money supply—and especially since the Fed shows no willingness to lower interest rates—the economy will soon feel starved for money. That’s deflationary. My advice to the Fed would be to relax monetary policy soon in anticipation of a meaningful increase in money demand. But sadly, the Fed is usually reactive and rarely, if ever, proactive.
If You Only Have Time For One Metric, Make It This One
Sam Ro: It’s easy to get drawn in by a variable like layoffs or oil prices — especially when they make front-page headlines — and jump to an incorrect conclusion. So what are investors to do if they want to get a handle on things quickly? There is one metric that can serve as a north star for stock market investors.
Related:
You Can Beat the Stock Market by Avoiding Its Worst Days. But You Won’t.
Jeffrey Ptak: In a viral post on X, a strategist said you stood to make a lot more by averting the market’s biggest losses than you gave up by being out of the market on the days it notched its biggest gains. The implication is you should try to sidestep the worst days and worry less about participating in the best days. We put this claim to the sniff test. It didn’t pass.
America’s Geriatric Stock Market
Owen A. Lamont: Should we be alarmed by our elderly stock market? Does it reflect declining American dynamism, an ossifying corporate hierarchy, and rising market decrepitude? Should you dump U.S. stocks and shop around for a younger market? No. Rising age may be undesirable for human populations, but for equity markets, lack of young firms indicates high future returns. Based only on its age, today’s geriatric market is a screaming buy.
Brian Chingono: After more than a decade of drought, the value premium has sprung back into positive territory, and the best years may be yet to come.
Via Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at the Carson Group:
Midterm years historically aren’t great for investors. But it actually does much better during a President’s second term than first term.
Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.
Investing in Times of Uncertainty
This week, Greg and Doug Stokes discuss how the market is reacting to nearly a month of the Iran conflict and the potential for an impending diplomatic solution. They also analyze timing the stock market’s worst and best days, gold’s safe-haven status, the long-term inflation outlook, and investment strategies for navigating volatility.
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*Stokes Family Office does not offer legal or tax advice. Please consult the appropriate professional regarding your individual circumstances.
