Recessions, Tariffs, and Muni Bonds

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, retirement plan services to anything we found interesting.  Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!

ECONOMY NEWS

Cullen Roche’s 3 Things: Recessions, (more) Tariffs and Time

• Roche updates his own Recession Rule, examines bad tariff narratives, and explains why temporal diversification works.

Why Didn’t Tariffs Push up the U.S. Dollar?

• Brad W. Setser writes, “Two months ago, Scott Bessent, Stephen Miran and conventional macroeconomic analysts all agreed on one point: an increase in tariffs should raise the value of the dollar.” He gives 5 theories on why it didn’t work.

Recession Watch Metrics

• Bill McBride says current data doesn’t predict an imminent recession, but he remains cautious, giving data/policy considerations he’s watching.

Related:

• 1st Quarter GDP Report

• SFO Quarterly Review: Q1 2025

• Emotional Investing, Biases, & Long Term Views

MARKETS NEWS

DeepSeek and Tariffs Fail to Undermine AI Investment Boom (So Far)

• James Pethokoukis: Jevon’s Paradox and competitive pressure take precedence

Morningstar: Why Are Muni Bond Funds Losing Money in 2025?

• Most municipal bond funds are posting losses, even as taxable bond categories are posting gains.
• Higher issuance and volatility have pushed down municipal bond prices, which started the year high.
• Valuations on muni bonds now look attractive.

Dividend Hikes Offer Optimism Amid Tariff Turmoil

• Stocks have rebounded sharply off their early-April lows, but macro risks persist.
• Dividend stocks have largely outperformed so far this year.
• Wall Street Horizon profiles a pair of blue chips that recently announced dividend hikes, a broader Q2 theme.

Related:

• • The Economic Ripple Effect of Tariffs
  • Recession Fears, Retirement Savings, & Inflation Drops
  • Stagflation, Geopolitical Risks, & International Investing

Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years.  As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. We are your local experts for Gulf South wealth management. Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.