Housing, AI Capex, & US Exceptionalism

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, retirement plan services to anything we found interesting.  Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!

ECONOMY NEWS

Goldman’s Mid-Year Housing Outlook

• Bill McBride breaks down Goldman Sachs’ mid-year 2025 housing outlook which forecasts sluggish home sales and modest price growth due to high mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and a persistent lock-in effect keeping existing homeowners from moving.

Honey, AI Capex is Eating the Economy

• Paul Kedrosky writes that AI capex is so big that it’s affecting economic statistics, boosting the economy, and beginning to approach the railroad boom.

The State of the American Consumer, As Told by Their Bankers

• Sam Ro: According to major U.S. banks, consumers remain broadly resilient—continuing to spend and manage debt well—despite softening sentiment, rising delinquencies among lower-income earners, and inflationary pressures from tariffs.

Related:

• Bonds, Tariffs, & Jobless Claims
• SFO Quarterly Review: Q2 2025
• AI & Market Concentration

MARKETS NEWS

Headline Fatigue: Does the Stock Market Care About Tariffs Anymore?

• Stocks are shrugging off bad news. Some analysts warn against complacency.

No Sign of Investors Fleeing “US Exceptionalism”

• Bespoke: The US Treasury reported the largest inflow of foreign capital to that market (net purchases) since 2022, obliterating the narrative that foreign investors are fleeing Treasuries (or US assets generally) due to concerns over political risk or as a response to tariffs.

Is the Exceptional Performance of US Stocks Sustainable? Key Takeaways for Investors

• New research finds that valuation expansion—not stronger fundamentals—has fueled US stocks’ dominance since 2008.

Related:

• Inflation Surprises and Calls For Rate Cuts
• Energy, Housing, & Expected Returns

CHART OF THE WEEK

Looking at the the combined weight of the S&P 500’s defensive sectors—Consumer Staples, Energy, Healthcare, and Utilities—to the combined weight of NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT), we note that these two companies now account for 15% of the entire S&P 500.

(via Todd Sohn)

Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years.  As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. We are your local experts for Gulf South wealth management. Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.