Viewing the Economy Through Different Lenses

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, retirement plan services to anything we found interesting.  Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading!

ECONOMY NEWS

The US is Unlikely to Drop Into Recession

• Joachim Klement: With the job market softening and economists hammering on about the negative consequences of tariffs, some people expect the US economy to slow down and eventually drop into recession. My personal view is one where the stagflationary impulse from the tariffs will slow the economy down and increase inflation. Still, the US is unlikely to drop into recession in 2025 or even 2026.

Strong Economy, But Weak Labor Market Because of Lower Immigration?

• Torsten Sløk looks at a wide array of data that remains solid from economic/trade policy to theater/restaurant/travel spend. He opines that maybe the reason the labor market is softening is because of lower immigration and not because of a slowdown in the broader economy.

Four Different Ways to View the Economy

• Sam Ro breaks down the current state of the economy by putting on 4 different hats: hard data, soft data, stock market, and biased.

Related:

• • • Investing in the Future With Demographic Change
    • AI’s Job Effect, US Oil, & Dividend Growth Stocks
    • Jobs, Tariffs, & IPOs
    • Trade Deals, Tariffs, & Housing

MARKETS NEWS

Revenge of the Small Fries

• Callie Cox writes, “Small caps clearly aren’t dead, even if they’re hobbled.”

The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments

• Bogumil Baranowski: How bargain hunters can learn to appreciate paying for exceptional opportunities.

Is It Time to Raise Some Cash?

• Ben Carlson: An emergency fund should not be an investment decision. It’s a personal finance decision. These are the factors you should consider when it comes to building the right cash emergency fund.

Related:

• Stokes Family Office Ranked Top RIA Firm by Financial Advisor Magazine For Third Consecutive Year
• SFO Quarterly Review: Q2 2025

CHART OF THE WEEK

Via Jeremy Horpedahl, over 1/3 of American families now have over $150,000 of income for the first time in history (adjusted for inflation)

Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years.  As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. We are your local experts for Gulf South wealth management. Want to hear more from our team? Check out the Lagniappe Podcast.