The Index & Inflation

Each week, the Stokes Family Office staff puts together a list of our favorite news and updates on all things wealth management. From financial planning, portfolio construction, tax and estate planning, and retirement plan services to anything we found interesting. Enjoy this week’s curated list for your weekend reading as we focus on the index and inflation!

ECONOMY NEWS

Is the Index Hiding Something?

• Grant Engelbart, Carson Group: Although 2026 has felt volatile, broad market indexes have experienced only modest drawdowns relative to history, remaining shy of a traditional 10% correction, even as concerns around AI, inflation, geopolitics, and elections dominated headlines. Beneath the surface, however, individual stocks have seen much larger declines and dispersion, creating opportunities for active management, sector rotation, and tax-loss harvesting while reinforcing the value of diversification and staying invested.

Related:

• • Debt, Stocks, & the Economy
  • 2026 Stokes Family Office Quarter 3 Review
  • Bond Traders & The Bear Case

MARKETS NEWS

4 Reasons to Think US Inflation Will Come Back Down

• Preston Caldwell, Morningstar: Inflation surprised to the upside in 2026 due to lingering tariff effects and higher energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, but Morningstar expects inflation to resume its decline, reaching 2.5% in 2027 and averaging 2.0% from 2028-2030. Key drivers of this disinflation outlook include fading tariff impacts, lower expected oil prices, wage growth consistent with low inflation, and continued moderation in housing costs, which could allow the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in 2027 and 2028.

CHART OF THE WEEK

The US midterm election is less than two weeks away, and the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that stocks will fall if Democrats regain control of both houses of Congress. Wall Street pros tend to be just fine with gridlock, and that’s what they can largely expect if Democrats take back just one chamber of Congress. It will be hard to get anything done with the House and Senate split and Trump able to veto any legislation the parties do agree on (via Bloomberg).

Stokes Family Office is 100% Family Owned, and has been continually operating in the New Orleans Area for over 35 years.  As a family office, we are focused on family wealth, financial planning, and tax planning. We are your local experts for Gulf South wealth management.